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Handling uncertainty during global conflict

The year 2022 sure started out with a bang… and I’m not talking about Russia invading Ukraine. The markets swooned in January, were volatile but mostly down in February and then President Putin of Russia decided he wanted to have a say in how Ukraine was run and charged in with guns blazing and missiles flying. We are seeing oil and gas prices rise and fall with the advent of some of the harshest economic sanctions ever deployed onto an economy. Most of the world voted to condemn Russia at the United Nations but two countries, among almost 40 in total, with almost half the world’s population (China & India), voted to abstain or even support Russia’s right to military operations. There is saber rattling on all sides but so far, only defensive military support has been supplied to Ukraine by NATO and no offensive weaponry or support has begun to flow. The world hasn’t seen this big of an armed conflict in decades so small wonder the economy and stock markets aren’t sure what to make of it.

I regularly listen to multiple economic podcasts, attend webinars and read voraciously to stay current on all that is happening. COVID brought us almost two years and counting of new economic troubles, supply chain problems, labor shortages, the highest inflation in over 30 years and now we have the potential that one misstep by our political establishment might lead us into World War III. So what to do? Do you sell and go all in on cash? Do you buy? Do you hedge your portfolio? One of the best recommendations I heard came from four professional venture investors on the All In podcast. They say that in times of uncertainty and global conflict like we are in now, keep capital deployed. Don’t watch stock prices, don’t focus on all the bad news which seems to come out every other minute. Stick to your plan. Think in terms of years and decades. There is very little you can do to hedge or even prepare for global calamity or an armed invasion. Instead, think about what your horizon is and think in terms of that time frame. You can’t hedge WW3 or some catastrophic event that hits the entire world.

Our job is to work together to create a plan that fits your own unique circumstances. That is why, when we meet, we always discuss your plan and any changes or updates that might affect it. Unless your horizon has changed or something has caused us to reevaluate that plan, we will stick to the plan and ride through the storm together and come out the other side.

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